IN SEARCH OF ELECTORAL REFORM, IN A HURRY

An analysis by Guido Tabellini, new Rector of the Bocconi University

“The current status quo is unsustainable and the unrepeatable miracle of the 2008 vote should be taken as a chance to consolidate a bipolar system”

Not only do we have politicians who in the meantime have become ministers, for whom participation at the Festival of Economics – decided a few months ago – has today become impossible. We also have a university lecturer who has been nominated Rector and who nevertheless confirmed his participation. This is the case of Guido Tabellini, selected as the new Rector of the Bocconi University in Milan last Tuesday. Chosen unanimously, he will take office for two years starting from 1 November. Professor of Political Economy, Tabellini, aged 52, was today the protagonist in Trento, in the interview in the Depero room with Tiziano Marson, Editor of the three newspapers belonging to the Espresso Group in the “Dolomite” area: Trentino, Alto Adige and Corriere delle Alpi. The subject: efficiency and representation in electoral systems. Tabellini, who presented a concise “lesson”, supported both by analysis and by the enthusiasm of an economist who is also involved in politics, drew certain conclusions, “the Italian status quo is unsustainable and we have before us a unique opportunity to consolidate the bipolar system in Italy. The presence of a small number of parties and the need for governability drive us in this direction. There are two dangers: on the left the temptation of alliances, when faced with the need for an electoral law; on the right the danger that the problem is underestimated and attention is concentrated only on governability. Clearly, without forgetting that in a year there is the referendum, the impact of which is unpredictable”. However, “reform is essential, in order to obtain efficiency and efficacy. Indeed, electoral law gives rise to serious symptoms: short-sightedness, incapacity to decide, corruption and inefficiency”, Tabellini stated. He went on to analyse the pros and cons of the systems around which debate has centred for years: proportional and majority systems. Tabellini did not hide his preference for a proportional system based on small constituencies (following the Spanish model) with minimum thresholds. “I think it will lead to a bipolar system, but it may not be sufficient. However, it could obtain the support of the PDL and the PD, and even the Lega, which is very strong in certain areas, might look on it with favour”. Clearly, there are other alternatives to the current system. The majority single vote system: but we have already tried this and it was not effective. The majority twin ballot system to reduce the contractual power of political extremes: but the right-wing does not want this. Finally, the pure proportional system, with thresholds of access: this favours the centre and leads to instability of government, Tabellini recalls. The new Rector of the Bocconi warns: the 2008 vote is an unrepeatable miracle, marked on the left by the desire to stay away from the intersecting vetoes within the Prodi government and on the right by the certainty of winning and the desire for governability. However the drastic reduction in parities, Tabelloni insists, will not be repeated if the majority reward is not transferred from the coalition to the party. Tabellini’s lesson also offered other ideas. Symptoms, empirical evidence and conclusions. Starting from the direct and indirect effects of three aspects of electoral law: the votes equals seats formula; the size of the constituency; single vote methods (candidate or list). According to Tabellini, the voting of a list means encouraging corruption and absenteeism, whereas the proportional system facilitates the entry of different forces on the political scene. He went on to state that there are also direct effects on public expenditure: the proportional system would appear to encourage greater expenditure on general public assets and welfare, whereas the majority system could lead to local benefits. However, Tabelloni noted, there is no evidence that one system is better than another. There is, on the other hand, once certainty: the unrepeatable miracle of 2008 should be capitalised on, as the current electoral law does not guarantee avoidance of paralysis. And a new electoral system should be established, given that everyone agrees that the current one is “rubbish”.